Don't Panic
What is going on? We have the worst Government in British History, led by a man who bullies his staff, dithers over decisions and micromanages his cabinet; is roundly loathed by a large portion of the Parliamentary Labour party and who demonstrably* has no plan should they win the election. There is no need to rehearse the awful state of the country after 13 years of Gordon Brown at the helm. Yet the polls, if they are to be believed are showing Labour well into largest single party, and possibly even into overall majority territory. What the bloody hell is going on, and what is Cameron & co playing at?
First. There is no denying polls have closed. Most of this is due to a rise in Labour certainty to vote, as the widespread assumption of a big Tory win has concentrated minds in the heartlands. Around half the country is on the Payroll - either benefit recipients or in jobs in the state sector. These people are clinging to nurse for fear of something worse. This has driven the Labour share from the High 20's to the mid 30's.
Second, the Tories have fluffed their lines. They have released un-thought-through policies into the ether in order to try to counter the "no policies" meme, and it backfired as they are picked apart. This is not, to be fair, the fault of the individual policies, but the failure to put them into an overarching narrative. Even Tories appear uncertain what Dave 'n co really stand for. Part of this is due to an unremittingly hostile broadcast media - and even the right-wing press is complaining: not right-wing enough, so Cameron has few allies amongst opinion formers. Do not mistake a general assumption that Gordon Brown is awful for support for Cameron. The Tory message is being distorted even by people most people would consider Conservative allies, So if you use primary sources - the Tory press releases, and have an eye on the policies to which they have committed, the picture is nothing like the popular perception. This failure to frame the narrative has seen the Tory share of the vote slip from the low 40's into the high 30's.
Nevertheless, this looks disastrous. But there are some silver linings in what looks like a pretty big rain cloud that would be a further 5 years of Brown as Prime Minister.
First, I don't believe the polls. I am aware that "a rouge poll is one with which you disagree", but the polls just don't reflect what I'm hearing down the Dog n' Duck. Most of the narrowing of the lead is a strengthening of the Labour vote and as such is out-with Cameron's control. If you assume, reasonably for the time being that one poll which put the Tories on 37 is a margin of error outlier, and the real position is 39 or so, then Cameron is still in winning territory. Just. Furthermore, there are large adjustments being made, by YouGov especially, which enhance the Labour vote. I suspect this is due to false recall (not admitting to voting Labour in 2005) being misinterpreted as an undersampling of Labour. This is a reverse of the 'Shy Tory' effect from the '90s which accounted for the polling organisations' embarassment in 1992.
I trudged the streets of Edinburgh in 1997 on behalf of the Conservative party, so I know what political unpopularity looks like. I am canvassing Lib/Lab marginals now and I am not seeing Labour voters at all. Many ex-labour voters are voting BNP, not voting or even volounteering that "it's the other lot's turn". Gordon Brown is universally described as "that bloody/fucking/useless man in Downing St." (delete as applicable). The English marginals is where the election is to be won, and they are polling very differently. The Labour party may pile up votes amongst the Party's clients in Hull and toilets north, but not where they are needed.
"Swingback" doesn't exist. What has happened in most elections since the war is that the Tories almost always do better in the Campaign than Labour - that is they poll better than the opinion polling suggested when the election was called. And I suspect that this will be even larger this time. 4 weeks of Gordon vs Cameron means that the people will be reminded of just how awful the Prime Mentalist is. Plus there's the added bonus that he's never fought a competitive election before in his life. There is a chance he'll lose it on air as the pressure gets to him. Labourites think the nation is seeing through Cameron, but he's hardly got a look-in on the broadcast media in the last couple of weeks and Smithson's second rule is that the Tories poll in proportion to the air time Cameron gets. (The first, for your information is that the poll which shows Labour worst is usually correct).
Finally, there is the ground war. The Conservatives have by far the largest number of members and activists sheperded by the largest number of councillors and they have the biggest war chest - it's not just ashcroft. Those Councillors pay directly into their party's machine. This means not only can they get more leaflets through doors, but that these are cheaper to deliver (an army of deliverers, not the postal system). As tedious as it seems, leaflets win elections. Do not mistake UKIP activists bleating on Conservative home for dissent. Cameron is popular amongst the grass-roots of his party, who are motivated and keen to see the end of the most catastrophic administration in this country's history, and will continue to trudge pavements in all weathers knowing that each leaflet through the door is a knife through Gordon's heart. I'm even getting apolitical people to "do their bit" by spending an afternoon delivering in a local marginal. Gordon Brown is HATED in middle England.
These factors combined mean that I am confident that the Tories will be returned to office after 13 God-awful years of Labour incompetence. This post is not the place to discuss whether you like Cameron, Osborne, or the Policies they've come up with. I have written enough posts about the ones I do, and the ones I don't. This is about the polls, the Liklihood and nessesity of Conservative victory and whether my recent spread bet (buying Tory seats on the basis that this is as good as it's gonna get for Brown and Co) is a good one.
For Conservative activists and anyone who hates Brown. There is an election to be won. Stop panicing. Back to your posts, Gentlemen. The enemy is to your left.
*There are no policies or announcements of policies on their website, which is covered in "aren't the Tories evil" comments. And they accuse the Tories of negative campaigning.









