Tuesday, 1 November 2011

Sub Priam Debt

Angela Merkel must have been so pissed off when she read the papers this morning that she shat her own Fallopian Tubes. It seems that the Bubbles have a new found love of Democracy and are going to vote on the Bailout plan being put before them. After all that grandstanding, all those promises of a glorious European future a couple of days later it falls round their ankles like a wet pair of panties.

Now usually Referendum aren’t really a problem for the EU. The people vote, the EU doesn’t like what they say; they have to vote again to get the correct answer. So what’s so different this time? Well the minute the Bubbles say Αριθ or no, the markets will collapse Greek debt like Blaster Bates on a chimney stack.

But why are the Greeks really doing this. Democracy hasn’t bothered the Greeks since Athena debated the possibility of funding the possibility of investigating a preliminary committee for the assistance of Sparta in 479 BC. The simple fact is that A) The Socialists are covering their arses – if they have to go against type and actually do something instead of fire-hosing other peoples cash at the problem, they want a massive mandate to do so. And unbelievably B) They actually think they have room for negotiation. They think that threatening to unravel this fairly laughable attempt at a bail out will get them a better deal. They’re negotiating with loan sharks about which of their legs gets broken thinking they have the upper hand.

This is going to end in so much tears you’ll need a rubber dinghy. And the benefits to all this… well Nick Clegg won’t be singing either. We non Federasts in the UK might though, it all ends the minute the Bubbles say no, and not even Sarkozy can blame us.


John Galt said...

You can see their point though really. They public at large is being told that the market value of Greek debt is 50% of its face value - this is certainly true on the secondary markets.

Non-Government holders of Greek paper are being told they need to take a 'voluntary' reduction of 50%. However, government holders of Greek paper will see no reduction.

In truth this is a reduction of 50% of the value in non-government hands, effectively giving us a cut of 20%-30% in reality.

To 'pay' for this the Greeks will have to put up with another round of swingeing austerity and tax rises as well as further 'measures' for at least a decade.

Now Stavros might be a nice enough guy, enjoys his Ouzo and playing his bouzouki for the tourists in the sunshine, but he's not had much fun and sunshine lately and all the tourists have buggered off.

In this particular climate, the Greek PM has taken the amazing decision to offer the Greek people a referendum. Not a referendum on Plan A or Plan B, but rather a referendum on accepting the 'further' bail out from the EU at all.

We can all see where he's coming from, this is a negotiation play by the Greek PM to get a better deal - at which point he'll decide it's not necessary.

I'm just hoping and praying that the EU calls his bluff and Greek finally does end up defaulting as it is only through such a catharsis that we can actually begin to get over this.

cuffleyburgers said...

AVBD - there is a very interesting post on The Slog which reckons that the referendum idea was cooked up with the krauts to fuck over the French - (always a worthy cause), he makes a convincing case

pragma said...

This is just good europolitics - the way to get concessions from the EU is to threaten them with democracy. It's worked for the Irish for a couple of decades.

Fancy a rebate? "Give us a rebate or we'll hold a referendum." Want to return powers or get an opt-out? "Give us what we want or we'll hold a referendum."

nominedeus said...

I am saving my bottle tops to buy an island or two if they vote against the bailout...have to be quick though the market will face a real rush I think!

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