Tuesday, 3 January 2012

Predictions for 2012

I didn't do one of these last year, so there's nothing to measure myself against. Here goes.

  • The Eurozone will survive, mostly intact. Only Greece may leave but I think this unlikely. Wishing the Euro's demise, does NOT make it more likely.
  • The Olympics will be a success, and the UK will benefit from a Feel-Good factor. We will come 6th in the medal table.
  • There will not be a General Election in the UK.
  • The Tories will consolidate a small poll lead.
  • Ed Miliband will continue to display utter uselessness, the result of my morning dump would make a more convincing leader of Her Majesty's loyal opposition. Well done, Labour, finding someone less credible than Gordon "one eyed fuck-wit" McDoom.
  • David Cameron's veto will not lead directly to the UK leaving the EU, and he will NOT offer a referendum, and will therefore be accused of "treachery" by the usual suspects for whom 'Europe' is the only issue.
  • The economy will surprise everyone by not collapsing (I'm not expecting a boom either)
  • FTSE will fall at first before closing the year close to 6,000.
  • Inflation will remain high, thanks to QE and the fact I suspect the BoE has a tacit 5% inflation target in order to monetise public and private debts.
  • Unemployment will peak (as usual, a couple of years after Labour leaves office...) before falling again.

So 2012 will be better than 2011, the squeeze will ease and we'll all start feeling a bit more optimistic again. The Government has the right ideas on the economy (broadly balance the books, then cut taxes, in that order).

The UK still has global influence, the rule of law, the world's 6th, 7th or 8th largest economy, the 16th richest per capita and defensible borders, semi-detached membership of the world's largest market, good relationships with the world's largest economy, direct links, via Hong Kong into the 2nd. We have a globe-bestriding financial sector, and we punch above our weight in sport, music & creative industries, have a strong manufacturing sector (yes, we do). There's still some fight left in old blighty yet, and I do wish people who consider themselves patriots would stop writing her off. This is not a bad place from which to be watching the crises.

Can you think of anywhere better?



1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Agree with most of your points...


But Europe is a significant issue and withdrawal from the EU into the EFTA is a worthy goal...

Sorry if in your opinion that makes me a swivel eyed loon, but there you go....

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