Wednesday, 28 November 2012

Minimum Unit Pricing for Alcohol

Cameron seems to think a minimum unit price for alcohol is a good idea. It isn't of course, it's the worst type of New Labour nanny-state idiocy. You know that, I know that. What's important is who the enemies of liberty are, and how they use their positions in a conspiracy against the public.

The medical political complex has become dominated by a kind of purse-lipped puritan, who sees the maintenance of life as its sole aim. To these people, the poor especially must be bullied, for that is what it amounts to, into "healthy lifestyles". To this end, government must see to it that the poor especially must be prevented from doing harm to themselves. Especially by smoking, drinking and taking drugs.

The war on smoking is going well. The habit has been de-normalised in much of middle-class society, remaining widespread only in the working class. The ban on smoking in pubs has caused tens of thousands of pubs to shut down. Not, of course the nice gastro-pub in which the members of the medical/political complex might take their 21 units a week (a number for which, of course there is NO evidence), but the kind of local boozer in which a builder might enjoy a pint after work. Builders, who are more likely to smoke than public health professionals, have responded to the incentive provided by the smoking ban by going to the supermarket for lager, and watching the television at home, where they are (still, just) allowed to smoke, instead of socialising with their friends and work colleagues.

The public health professional is not now satisfied with the steady decline in smoking. They are now going after booze, in a big way. And they are fundamentally dishonest. The UK has relatively low consumption of alcohol. Consumption of alcohol is falling. Young people are drinking less than ever. Of course some people go out and get squiffy on a Friday night, but THEY ALWAYS HAVE and much of the vomit and blood on the street is down to insane licencing laws that see local pubs shut (no "entertainment" you see) and vertical drinking barns with bull-necked bouncers who delight in giving random kickings, stay open late. People are herded into noisy "venues" only to have all of them shut simultaneously, leading to fights in kebab queues and taxi ranks. Stressed, drunk people whose jackets are probably still in the cloakroom of the club they've been kicked out of, and by whose bouncers they've had kickings, are herded around by increasingly officious and aggressive people wearing high-viz, until the police arrive and add one more person to the crime & disorder statistics.

A free market in the night-time economy wouldn't look like that.

Sheffield university's Professor Petra Meier's MODEL-BASED APPRAISAL OF ALCOHOL MINIMUM PRICING is being widely touted as evidence that minimum pricing works. It's nothing of the sort, of course. It's a model. If you assume a policy works, and put those numbers into a spreadsheet, you can estimate by how much consumption will fall at different unit prices. All you need is a title - in this case two PhDs and a Professor - to be believed when you say "but the model shows that consumption by problem drinkers falls the most". But it is by no means evidence that the policy will work. It's a tarted-up guess. It's policy-based evidence making, and hoping no-one challenges you on the data.

In a word they're lying to you. But by repetition the lies become the accepted truth.

But it's not about whether an intervention into minimum pricing would work. To make the argument about that risks the medical/political complex actually finding it does work, within their parameters, and being encouraged to ban bacon. Is a drop in alcohol consumption a good thing? Why? We probably want to cut the blood and vomit on the street on a Friday night, but that isn't about booze, it's culture, law and licensing. Why fight on ground of the puritan's choosing?

The question should whether it's the state's role to intervene in pricing. Because once that rubicon's been crossed, you can bet we're back to fighting the cold war again as price-planners flood through the economy, and every decision gets scrutinised by your GP. We will see restrictions on fatty foods. And before long, no-doubt the nation will be forced (for the good of the NHS) to do their press-ups and sit-ups every morning, in the road, where you can be inspected. Minimum pricing therefore is about whether the state has a right to tell you and me what we do with our bodies.

I like a glass of wine now and again. Once in a while, and less often than I used to, I like to get squiffy with my friends. This is absolutely none of the government's business. And it's the poor who suffer most. Pubs in poor areas were  already marginal businesses, and they've gone. So the low-waged have seen their social forum shut, increasing atomisation and alienation. And all because the temperance lobby don't like the sight of men with cigarettes and a pint. The poor have been driven to a WORSE health outcome by the smoking ban. And because their lives are a bit less social, the harmful drinkers may well drink more. Of course, if this is the case, there's no evidence, because there's no-one looking. The temperance lobby got their policy, and they've moved on.

This isn't about health. It's about a certain type of curtain-twitching middle-class puritan, drawn to careers in public health who see the poor not as people, but a problem to be tidied up. This is true of slum clearances which destroyed communities in the name of public health, and it's true of the modern-day temperance crusade.

My prediction: This policy will be declared illegal under European law as the Scottish experiment is shot down. Cameron will use that as a pretext to drop a policy in which he's invested, but on which the rest of the Cabinet is less less keen. He will use it, like the votes for prisoners, as something on which he will "stand up to Europe". We will still hear the confident assertions medical/political complex go unchallenged on the Today program.

Further reading on the subject: Heresy Corner's post is very good and Christopher Snowdon's blog is excellent on the litany of lies by public health professionals and the temperance industry. You should read it.



4 comments:

Anonymous said...

TL;DR.

Cameron, the new labour.

Jackart said...

I wouldn't go that far. The difference between this and the last Government is that the stupid illiberal ideas never make it to law under the coalition.

Simon Jester said...

Excellent article.

But now that you yourself are likening Cameron's policies to "the worst type of New Labour nanny-state idiocy", shouldn't you be censoring yourself?

:^)

Snod said...

Illiberal bullshit aside it's the abuse of statistical modelling that most horrifies me about this kind of 21st century policy making. The paper mentioned was born out of £1 million grant funded by the Medical Research Council - so this is big money for cash starved academics. The academics involved are expected to have impact and if/when this law is passed based partially on these predictions they will use this as evidence of impact. Then the grant money doth flow.

Personally, I like mathematical models, most people do, they're an invaluable tool for trying to understand the world around us. Having said that whenever I see some grand pronouncement from somebody who has just fitted a parametric model that they plucked out of thin air to a bunch of real world data I always think of Jon Von Neumann:

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk."

Unfortunately, this seems to not be taught on your average PPE course.

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