Saturday, 24 November 2012

On UKIP & A Plan For Cameron.

UKIP is a Mainstream political party, whom David Cameron once described as

"Fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists".
And he's right. While the UKIP supporting Twittersphere are impeccably libertarian to Anarcho-capitalist, much of the rest of the party, those who infest the comments section of the Telegraph, are mostly dissafected Tories of the sort who think that any leader that isn't Saint Margaret of Thatcher is Europhile Blue Labour, and who will blame Europe for more-or-less anything. Having campaigned and canvassed in many, many elections, I can assure you that much of UKIPs support comes from people with a whiff of the golf-club about them.

But of course there are people with dubious views in all parties, and Labour should not be smug. The only people from whom I've heard really rancid racism in the pub are people who then proudly proclaim themselves "old Labour". There are of course racists in the Conservative party. The Lib dems are probably pretty free of racists, but they've got shit-eaters and violent paedophiles instead.

So. Cameron's light hearted dismissal of the opponents to the Conservatives right, is a problem because it is preventing Cameron really getting any political capital from the Rotheham Fosterins scandal. For those who don't know, it's story of a UKIP-supporting couple, who had foster children removed from them by an archly-right-on, common purpose-infested social services department of Rotherham council.

Rotherham, of course is about to have a by-election as the sitting MP turned out to be a thief. And UKIP following the scandal, are more likely to win the seat than the Tories as Rotherham's the sort of place where a donkey in red-rosette would win. What better way to lance a number of boils simultaneously? If Cameron offered a Referendum in the next parliament on continued membership of the EU, he could create a formal pact between UKIP and the Tories, perhaps even inviting them into the coalition, should they Manage to steal Rotherham from Labour.

Nigel Farage could not refuse a genuine offer of a referendum, backed by the Tory party. This would secure Cameron's hand against his own rebels, and would be popular in the right-wing press. If, as expected a red-rosette drone were to win the seat, the fact that the Tories formally backed the UKIP candidate would be long-forgotten, and hostilities could be resumed. However if the UKIP candidated was propelled to the seat by scandal, and the backing of Conservatives, then Ed Milliband's EU fox would be well and truly shot.

There are, as Paul Goodman explains, clearly risks to such a policy. A small party has to be less selective of its candidates, and a formal pact would mean the Tories would also own UKIP's nutty fringe. And there are of course risks to UKIP. A Tory party fully committed to an in-out referendum, and in a pact with UKIP would probably be UKIP's death. Farage may be pretty open in his willingness to come into the Tory fold, but much of UKIP hates the Tories with the scorn of a betrayed wife.

Which is why I don't think it will happen. Labour will win the Rotherham by election, UKIP will come second. And Social Services managers will continue to go to Common Purpose brainwashing sessions.



9 comments:

Theo Clifford said...

Would Cameron be campaigning for an in or an out vote? He won't call a referendum on Europe, because it would show just how out of touch the party leadership is with its own base, the vast majority of whom are very Eurosceptic.

I also think that UKIP needs to beware of its libertarian elite, because the party wins a lot of votes not just from disaffected Tories but also from Labour. The way to the hearts of a broad section of British society is not market fanaticism, which is much more justifiable but much less popular than rabid xenophobia.

Summermirr said...

Good gracious, 'the whiff of the golf club' - how terrible. Although, with the variety of other odious pongs and stinks pervading the place, the 'golf club', seems to have more in common with Channel no 5 !!

The most rancid racists I hear seem to have been imported - ranging from Hackney hypocrits, to Brussels Group Thinkers, and some devoted followers of a medieval middle eastern religion.

Silly, prejudiced comments apart - your premise is interesting.

Devil's Kitchen said...

Whilst there are a few nutters in any party, I don't think that even the older parts of UKIP are that traditionally Tory, really.

After all, I saw a UKIP Conference vote down—over-whelmingly—a "voluntary" National Service proposal of the kind that Cameron has been floating for years.

Believe me, I was surprised—pleasantly so—since I had made rather the same assumption about the majority of UKIP's members as you do here.

I rather think that UKIP's membership might be drawn not, as is always assumed, from the "nuttier" parts of the Tories but the more independent-minded parts.

Sometimes the two overlap of course, because independently-minded people tend to give less of a shit about the small-minded bigotry of parts of the population!

DK

Jackart said...

I think unlike most Parties, UKIP's activists are, as you say, younger and more independent-minded. They don't look like their voters.

I think in many ways, UKIP is unique. There is no doubt about the hatred much of the party feel for the tories though.

UKIPs main problem is Farage, who is BY FAR their biggest asset, but who is open about his willingness to do a deal. Without Farage, UKIP is probably finished unless they recruit more strength in depth.

No Nadine Dorries isn't it!

Anonymous said...

Jackart, your smugness is a bit off putting.

I should be a Natural Tory.

However, Cameron has done very little to counteract the long term planting of leftist influence throughout the public sector. (Bonfire of the Quangoes anyone)

His only vaguely conservative move is in education, yet he doesn't have the courage to acknowledge the major failing of the education system - the abolition of grammar schools.

In almost everything else his apprach is loathesome - and to label the disaffcted base of the Tory Party (which is much of UKIP)as racists shows a staggering arrogance; especially following an election where he couldn't beat the worst prime minister of all time following the biggest financial catastrophe this country has ever faced.

And yet your position is that a vote for UKIP is a vote wasted.

I cannot disagree more strongly - I refuse to recommed thids incarnation of the Tory Party with my vote. I voted Tory in the last election with my nose held to get Brown out, but now it would have been better to let Labour win. As Mervyn King saaid in 2009ish "The winner of the net election will be uneletable thereafter for a generation" - well that label is now going to be affixed to the "ight wing" despite Cameron's outfit being nothing of the kind.

LibLabCon are three cheeks of the same corporatist - statist arse. If UKIP only has a gnat's fart chance of changing this, well its better than fuck-all achieved by voting for them.

Jackart said...

Anon. In two sentences you manage to display two of the "natural conservative" idiocies.

You say Cameron's done nothing to counteract the leftward drift. The coalition's cut spending faster than any government in history, and is cutting through the thicket of welfare in the teeth of savage hostility from the bureaucracy.

You then go into Grammar schools. Gove's reforms are the most far-reaching since WW2.

Please read this post: http://brackenworld.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/obsessions-of-tory-right.html

Anonymous said...

"The coalition's cut spending faster than any government in history"


Oh bollux has it, overall spending has increased, very very marginally above inflation, only individual budgets have been cut, but then only by merging the functions into other departments.

Spending is due to be cut now till 2015 through a freeze on rises (so cut's through inflation).

You can't say they have cut before the cut's have taken effect, because they have already done a U turn on that by announcing another 50 billion on infrastructure spending (which may be the right thing to do, but it's not cuts).






"and is cutting through the thicket of welfare in the teeth of savage hostility from the bureaucracy"

Except they havent actually cut anything yet, again with cut's being projected into the future as new policies take effect.

And most of the cut isn't in welfare spending (the HB cap whilst correct is a drop in the ocean), most of the savings will be in admin not in actual cuts to welfare payments.


"Gove's reforms are the most far-reaching since WW2. "

Yup, but a fag papers difference between UKIPs policies.

Anonymous said...

Thank you anonymous for pricking the bubble of bullshit that Jackart was pushing in his response to me.

And let's look at todays fucking idiocy shall we - minimum pricing for alcohol. This is the very antisesis of a true Tory policy. It's bloody nanny statism at it's worst... If Cameron believed the nudge bollocks and wanted to enact a true Tory policy, he'd reintroduce tax incentives for married couples, but seeing as he's taking his policy leads off the Guardian and the BBC, not a chance.

Sorry but I won't give this craven bunch of fools my vote.. And everytime you join Cameron in dismissing UKIP as "racists and fruitcakes" UKIP gains 10,000 votes and the Tories become even more unlectable and shit...

Jackart said...

I am not going to argue about the idiocy of Minimum Pricing - the worst kind of New Labour crap.

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