Tuesday, 15 January 2013

David Cameron and the Euro Head-Bangers.

The press are talking up the prospect of a Tory Euro-split. The likes of serial rebel Douglas Carswell are regularly talked about as if they are the same as the Maastricht rebels, and they will do for Cameron as John Redwood did for Major. Common Market or Quit is their rallying cry.

If we were to withdraw from the Eurosystem, but remain part of the Single Market, we would have to conform to all manner of rules and regulations made by the Eurosystem. It is not just that we would have no say in making such rules (not that we have much say now). Nor is it just that many so-called Single Market rules – such as the 48-hour week – are actually social and employment law masquerading as Single Market measures. The real problem with retaining a residual requirement to conform to Single Market rules, after withdrawing from all the rest, is that UK firms would still have to conform to Single Market rules even if they have no intention of exporting to the Single Market at all.
But are they going to bring down another Tory Government?

I'm not sure. Carswell knows Cameron's not going to get a Common-market relationship in negotiation. He also knows he will almost certainly get an in-out referendum some time after the next election (assuming a Conservative victory...). Miliband has ruled out such a referendum. Carswell also knows he will be free to campaign for 'out'. Hence the long-running complaint that the media seem determined to run with a 'Tory split' story, when actually the party's rather united on the issue, and probably more so than Labour. Even Carswell talks with irritation about the endless 'Tory splits' questions he gets, when quite often he's actually supporting the Prime Minister.

Tory splits on Europe are largely tactical. There are a few who would take a hard line, a small number who would vote 'out' come what may. There are almost no federalists of the Michael Hestletine type left. Everyone else is sceptical, but not wanting to pull out now. Almost all, including Cameron, want to repatriate powers.

Most people in the country (if they care, which few do) want to repatriate powers too, but don't want to pull out. So the Tory party is in broad agreement with the country. This, however encourages the Tories to talk about Europe, as it's something they have in common (they think) with 'the man in the street'. The 'man in the street' however is thinking "I wish they'd shut up about Europe and sort the fucking economy out". To understand this better, read this by YouGov head, Peter Kellner on "Valence voters".
Suppose you feel that strongly about the role of the private sector in the NHS, either for or against. That is a positional view. But suppose you don’t mind that much either way, and all you want is prompt, high-quality care when you need it. In that case, yours is a valence view. Most politicians, activists and commentators are full of positional views. But millions of swing voters aren’t: they take a valence view of politics. They judge parties and politicians not on their manifestos but on their character.
What banging on about Europe tells voters about the Tories' character, even voters who agree with them on the issue, is that The Tories aren't interested in concerns of ordinary voters. Labour's positional issues at least have the virtue of not being completely irrelevant to the man in the street, even if the voters largely disagree. It matters not a jot that the voters take the "right wing view" positional view on Europe, what's crucial is they don't hold this view very strongly and aren't that interested. Endlessly demanding a referendum may be delivering what the voters say they want in response to that question, but To which the average voter actually asks "to what immediate problem is a referendum on Europe a solution?". Almost no-one (3-5% at most) outside  the bubble of the politically engaged think a referendum on the EU is important enough to spontaneously offer it as a top-5 issue to pollsters.

The headbangers, by which I mean those who simply will not be appeased by anything other than an immediate referendum, now, in which Cameron backs 'out', have largely gone to UKIP. And good riddance. What's left is a small rump of people for whom Europe is a major issue but who can be persuaded to back a realistic strategy of renegotiation, if the referendum is credibly promised.

My problem is that any Euro debate has the potential to cost the Tories dear. The best thing Tories can do to prevent a Labour victory in 2015 is just simply shut up about Europe. Don't mention it. Keep schtumm. It is enough that the voters agree with us. We do not need pacts with UKIP to defend the right flank. We don't need to have a pre-election referendum. All the voters want right now is lower prices in the shops and a growing economy. Deliver that, get a landslide. Fail, get voted out. It is that simple. Europe appears to be a distraction, of interest only to the political class, reinforcing the view that the Tories in particular aren't interested in the concerns of ordinary people. Whatever your view, you must acknowledge that withdrawal from the EU would be a major issue for Government, which would distract them from other, more pressing questions.

Above all, the headbangers need to stop spouting self-serving myths, which aquire truthiness by constant repetition. What are you, Labour? Most of our law is not made in Europe. We are not swamped by eastern Europeans, who aren't "taking our jobs. The EU is not a plot by dastardly foreigners to circumvent our democracy, when all the important stuff affecting people day-to-day is dealt with by Westminster. Even if a measurable percentage of law is "made in Brussels", much of it is detailed trade regulation, necessary for a functioning common market, and of little interest to the man in the street. And in any case, in order to get to 50% of law "made in Brussels" you need to include every law which has any influence at all from EU law, even where the law is not changed because of 'Europe'. We are not "run by Europe" and to suggest we are is paranoid fantasy.

Contrary to both Federast and Head-banger myth, renegotiation of terms is possible, both Thatcher and Major showed this. The Eurozone is going to go off and do its own thing. Which leaves the 'outs', of whom Britain as the largest country, is the natural leader. Some of the outs are still publicly committed to joining the Euro, but in practice are probably having second thoughts. The UK does have influence - the EU would be much less free-trade oriented were it not for us.  It's true the 'Common Market' relationship is not on offer, but significant repatriation of powers over employment law and so forth could be.The EU is reforming, and a UK renegotiation will accelerate this process. The UK is a creditor nation, with a strong economy and goodwill, especially in the countries of the East for our open policy to immigration which contrasts sharply with the attitude of France and Germany. Remaining in, but on looser terms is true to 500 years of British/English foreign policy.
And let me be quite clear. Britain does not dream of some cosy, isolated existence on the fringes of the European Community. Our destiny is in Europe, as part of the Community...
Margaret Thatcher, Bruges, 1988.

If your view is "Withdraw now, or by Thursday week at the latest, or you're a Federast" this post is not for you. This one is, and you should bugger off to UKIP, pronto. If, however you have a realistic view of what Europe is for, and does with us; and think the UK can influence its European future, then have a little faith in Cameron. He's got it right so far.

Cameron's strategy is right. It is consistent with British interests and conservative ideals. It is pragmatic, intelligent and opportunistic. It is sceptical, but not obsessed by the European question. Like Thatcher, who secured the rebate, and Major who secured the opt-outs from the social chapter and Euro, Conservative prime-ministers have performed well in European negotiations. Cameron will be no different. In contrast Blair gave up the rebate and got nothing in return, and Brown scuttled off to Europe to sign the Treaty of Lisbon while no-one was looking. Conservative Prime ministers succeed in Europe despite the head-bangers, not because of them.



17 comments:

Andrew Ian Dodge said...

She also stated that signing the Single European Act was one of her biggest regrets. Yes Thatcher & Major "renegotiated" only to that the EU find another way to do the same thing the UK thought they had avoided.

Prodicus said...

Good post. On the whole.

Anonymous said...

From the BBC:
Honda is to cut 800 jobs at its Swindon plant, blaming weak demand in
European markets.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20987708


Jaguar Land Rover has announced the creation of 800 production jobs at
its plant in Solihull.

The news came as the firm announced record sales of almost 358,000 cars
in 2012, up 30% from the year before.

The car-maker, which is owned by Tata of India, said vehicle sales in
China rose 70% to 71,940, overtaking the UK to become its biggest market

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21003670

Simon Jester said...

Jackart,

This article is utter bullshit from start to finish; it makes your cycling posts look moderate and sane, by comparison.

I can't be bothered to fisk the whole thing, so here's a fairly simple question: how much would you be willing to bet that (if elected) Cameron will offer a straight in/out referendum after the next election?

(Any weaseling in the wording of the referendum - such as "significant renegotiation of the terms of British membership" or whatever - and you lose.)

Jackart said...

The shorter version of this post:

Do I like the UK's relationship with the EU? No.

Do I want a significant renegotiation? Yes.

Would I countenance voting 'out'? Subject to the renegotiation, yes.

Is any of this worth risking that window-licker, Miliband with his finger on the Nuclear button? Hell no.

Prodicus said...

@Jackart at 11:27 am

Even better than the longer version.

Jackart said...

OK, for Simon Jester, the even clearer version of this post.

THE EU ISN'T A BIG ISSUE. ANYONE WHO THINKS IT IS, IS A FUCKING MORON. NO-ONE CARES. A REFERENDUM IS A SOLUTION TO NOTHING.

I COULDN'T GIVE A SHIT WHETHER CAMERON OFFERS A REFERENDUM OR NOT. I REALLY, HONESTLY, SERIOUSLY DON'T CARE THAT MUCH ABOUT THE EU BECAUSE THE GOOD BITS ARE WORTH NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE BAD.

IF YOU CARE, THEN GO TO UKIP. OFF YOU GO. GOODBYE. DON'T LET THE DOOR HIT YOUR ARSE ON THE WAY OUT.

And then the EU Headbangers are hived off into their own little ghetto where they can masturbate over copies of the D-Day invasion plans and complain about Jaques Delors to their hearts' content, and we can ignore them.

Simon Jester said...

Nice way of weaseling out of answering the only question I asked you, Jackart. Does that mean you can't afford to lose 50p?

Anonymous said...

"Do I want a significant renegotiation? Yes."


I also want a visit from father Christmas.

Jackart said...

Cameron is going to offer a renegotiation and then a referendum on the terms of that negotiation, after the next election. He may even legislate in this parliament.

If he does this, will you find something to complain about?

Simon Jester said...

"IF YOU CARE, THEN GO TO UKIP."

It looks like you're getting your wish, Jackart:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9806603/Tory-voters-switching-to-Ukip-poll-finds.html

Anonymous said...

"Cameron is going to offer a renegotiation"

"If he does this"

Let me know when that "if" becomes a "has"

Anonymous said...

Jackart,


The latest estimate has the "austerity measures" lasting until the end of the next parliament.. i.e. 10 years to reduce the deficit to zero.

Given that the government overspend / borrowing is crippling the economy - how the fuck is Cameron going to have a chance of winning the next election?

And you're wrong on the UKIP front as well...

cuffleyburgers said...

To pretend that the question of sovereignty is not an important political issue is ridiculous.

And particularly when membership of a failing EU is doing material damage to the UK in many many respects.

The renegotiation figleaf is a heap of steaming horseshit, as Cameron must realise. The only way for him to win the next election is to invoke Article 50.

You are David Cameron aren't you, and I claim my 10 pounds.

Anonymous said...

At £50m per day, and waiting until 2017 for a referendum on EU membership will cost Britain £73 BILLION

Anonymous said...

It took the EU 8 years to agree on food labelling regulation, what makes you think we can renegotiate the treaties with 26 other member states before 2017?

Anonymous said...

How did David Cameron do negotiating a reduction in the EU budget? Last time I checked it went up by £6.2 Billion and the UK is on the tab for £770 million extra. People who think we can "negotiate" are at best naive, and at worst complete liars.

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