Monday, 14 April 2014

Prediction: a Year Out

The Tories are going to win the General Election next year, there's an outside chance of the Lib-Dems securing enough to be worth hanging onto as coalition partners.


Everything is in place for a Tory victory in 2015. Don't believe me?
  1. Even Gordon Brown secured "swingback" in the last year of his Government: in his case at least 8 points. The Coalition, Tories especially will enjoy the same effect. Given the Tories are 4% behind (polls currently running 6%-1% labour leads), this alone will give them a small lead at the poll.
  2. The trend is already in the Tories' favour, though this alone will not extend Cameron's lease on Number 10. 
  3. UKIP, currently polling 13-20%, are most likely to be disaffected Tories. (50% of their current polling are ex-Tories). It's obvious a fair number of these are 'lent' votes for the Euros. UKIP are not going to poll 18% in General election. You can give at least a third of the UKIP vote to the Tories for the GE. And there you have it. Enough for a Tory government. But that's not all.
  4. Labour is led by Miliband for whom voters will not turn out. Cameron at least isn't repellent.
  5. New incumbent effect generally helps Tories.
  6. The return of the shy Tory?
  7. Lib-dems are harder to shift than herpes. (This hurts Tories at least as much as Labour)
  8. The UK is the fastest-growing major developed economy in the world. The cost of living crisis is over, and the public may well be feeling a bit more optimistic come May 2015.
  9. The Tory election narrative will be a combination of "look, things are going well, don't let Labour ruin it" combined with "look at Ed Miliband, what a wally". This is powerful.
So, if you think it's inconceivable that the Tories will win a GE out right, the chances are you're talking your own book.



4 comments:

Gareth said...

The left will be out in force come the general election. The anger felt against austerity is unlike anythign during the Blair/Brown years. Between this and Ukip the Tories will be lucky to win half a dozen seats north of Watford.

Jackart said...

'The left' Will be out in force. Labour voters won't.

perdix said...

Labour won't improve things, LibDems won't improve things, ukip can't improve things. Tories will continue to improve things.

Anonymous said...

Completely agree - sound analysis as ever. Not too sure about your use of 'cost of living crisis' though. Was there ever one?

Keeping you job on lower wages in real terms is not a crisis when the alternative was losing it in a general economic meltdown.

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