Tuesday, 24 March 2015

The Tory Party Wants to Win Again.

Even the awkward squad have been silent. There is no dissent from the back-benches and Cameron's gaffe - that he will not serve a third term - meaning there will be a leadership contest at some point in the next parliament, is being described as "a disaster". And it isn't good news for the Tories: it's certainly and own goal and an unforced error from the Prime Minister. But it has made Cameron, quite a lot more popular than Miliband, the subject of discussion. I am not sure this is a wholly bad thing. Labour are so inept, they considered running with "vote Cameron, get Boris" as if replacing the most popular party leader with the country's most popular politician and current mayor of London would be a disaster for the Conservatives.


one reason the Tories will win

Given the Tories discipline, and they wheeled out some pretty solid performances yesterday from even those named as potential successors, dismissing it as "a politician answering a question" is a successful line to take. And this was repeated by journalists on the news; Even Alastair Campbell struggled. The Tories defence gained traction, and so I think this will be less damaging than it could have been.

This incident though also goes to show what's wrong with our "political class", and it's not the politicians. It's not they unrepresentative. Women are selected in roughly the proportion they put themselves forward, ethnic minorities are only slightly under-represented and may be about the same proportion as in the general population after the next election, and not only sitting for "diverse" seats. MPs are middle class, but is it surprising that the working class, who seem to despise education, aren't producing many men and women of ideas to sit in parliament?

You have people stating as fact parliament is too "male, pale and stale". 'Middle-class' is a term of abuse and the lie that politics is unrepresentative is constantly repeated. The people doing this are the media. To the kind of "young people" that turn up on the media, anyone in a suit is "middle-class" who "doesn't understand" what young people experience. It's nonsense of course, but the media feed it.

What do you want? Parliament filled with semi-educated failures who're representative only of utter grockles? Parliamentarians chosen by gender and race, but utterly compliant to the whim of the executive? This is Labour's way. Because it seems ensuring diversity of appearance ensures a monoculture of political ideas. Worse you get risible Children like Red Princes Will Straw and Euan Blair or Princess Emily Benn who said
"I represent the ward I was born in, which is y'know more important than where you come from..."
...While the cameras were rolling. She's 25, and is being wheeled out to demonstrate their commitment to youth issues. By which labour mean tuition fees. Which they introduced. I am sure having Great Granddad, Granddad and Father all Labour MPs had absolutely no bearing on her selection.
"Judge me,on my ideas"
...I look forward to it. The Tories have always been less ethnically diverse but a broader church of ideas, and so harder to lead.

But they want it bad this time. The hatchet has been buried. The awkward squad are satisfied they will get their deepest desire: the EU referendum, and are working for it. Cameron has unified the ununifiable behind him, for a couple more years at least.

As for the election? The polls are neck and neck to a slight Tory lead. And the campaign proper has not yet begun. Labour are going to be near wiped out in Scotland, and have Ed Miliband "in Charge". When the broad mass of the electorate have a good look at him, they will say "urgh". Labour MPs openly call their leader a "fucking knob". UKIP are slipping, 18% a few months ago, nearer 14% now. Plenty of their supporters won't bother, or will vote Tory to keep Labour out. Thanks to the Scots, the national Labour inbuilt advantage is no more. A ten point move during a campaign is common. And there really is only one way it can go....

There will be a Tory majority.



6 comments:

Bradshaw said...

Hmm, can't see it myself. The best you're likely to get is a rerun of the current coalition with a much smaller majority - maybe something like 301 Tories and 26 Lib Dems.

Tories will lose a lot of seats to Labour in England because of Lib Dem switchers.

Simon Jester said...

"There will be a Tory majority."

Jackart, PoliticalBetting is one of the picked links you have next to your posts. Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?

Anonymous said...

The problem is though that Tories and some New Labour politicians may not like Miliband but a heck of a lot of ordinary people do when they get to see what he is really like and remember what he has stood up for.

Anonymous said...

tenner says you're wrong.

Anonymous said...

I wish they'd stop making stupid promises. My election strategy would be for Cameron to say:

"Look, you know what we're like. Vote for us, and you'll get more of the same but we'll try harder to be better. Give us a majority, and we think we'll get the economy better quicker, but Labour always push us down the drain - but it's a democracy, and if that's what you want, vote for it."

The Campbell said...

Dude-

What is your call? We the UK lose its collective mind and verge left in a couple of weeks?

There was an error in this gadget