America has a law called the "Federal Analogue Act" which attempts to do what the Conservatives are planning to do with the Psychoactive substances bill in the Queen's speech. It didn't work in the 'States, and it won't work here. It's vague: What does "substantially similar" mean. How can you prove it's for human consumption? As a result, it's hardly been used.
Thursday, 28 May 2015
Monday, 25 May 2015
Elections are won by the side that can reach out beyond their core supporters and persuade a plurality of voters that theirs are the best policies. What is striking at the moment, is how completely the left have failed to understand their opponents' beliefs and motivations. For this, I blame the echo-chamber of social media, and I think lefties are far, far more prone to this running down idealogical rabbit-holes than their opponents. Anyone debating lefties on Twitter will very quickly find utter incomprehension that anyone could think like that, and then get blocked. Labour is using social media to talk to itself, and therefore gets stuck with some really, really bad ideas.
Friday, 15 May 2015
The purpose of democracy is not to conduct a tribal headcount, but to allow the people to chuck the rotters out from time to time. Does anyone think 1979 or 1997 didn't accurately reflect the country's desire for a change?
No electoral system is perfect. List PR gives parties an accurate number of seats to their vote share, but then forces them to govern according to the necessity of coalition-building, not their principles or manifestos. It also insulates those grandees who make it to the top of the list, ensuring no Portillo/Balls moments when a top flight MP feels the wrath of the electorate. It is important to decapitate a senior MP from time to time "pour encouager les autres". Under proportional representation, patronage of party elites to put people in order on the list, distincentivises individual MPs from exercising their conscience in the legislature. We'd have fewer rebellions, and a stronger executive. List PR is what a political obsessive who identifies wholly and completely with his party thinks a "fair" system, but it has negative effects on the behaviour of MPs and concentrates power in a few hands who exist completely away from democratic oversight. I feel about list proportional representation the same way I think about the UK joining the Euro. I'd stop it, any way I can, for the system is wholly toxic. I don't want a PR Lords.
I want PR to go away, and never be spoken of again. Likewise "top-up" regional lists and so forth are fart-arsing about to please political wonks, to little benefit and create two classes of MPs.
On the other hand, First past the post gives a local MP a chance to build a personal following. His or Her standing may be enhanced by selective rebellions against the party whip on certain issues. MPs with a conscience and principles are respected by the electorate. An MP who is caught doing something the electorate don't like, like Neil Hamilton in Tatton, will be out on their ear, safe seat or no. On the other hand, a diligent and thoughtful MP who works hard, like Nick Clegg can buck the trend of a national wipe-out for their party.
Under first past the post we vote for PEOPLE not PARTIES. It's noticeable that the thoughtful, consistent, intellectual, honest and hard-working Douglas Carswell got re-elected relatively comfortably, but the opportunistic Judas, Mark Reckless was out on his ear. The voters of Rochester and Strood spoke. Likewise the voters of South Thanet decided that they'd rather not send Nigel Farage to represent them in parliament. This isn't about UKIP, as Douglas Carswell showed, but about Nigel. I have voted Labour in the past. Yes, me, voting Labour, when I lived in Vauxhall, I was pleased to vote for Kate Hoey in 2001, as she's anti-Euro and pro-Fox hunting (though definitely unsound on Cycling). This is a strength of First Past the Post.
I'll say it again: Voting isn't a tribal headcount, because most people don't think like we political obsessives. They think about the government they want, what's happening in their constituency. You're a socialist, but Labour can't win here? Might as well vote Green to send a message, or Liberal Democrat to keep the Tories out. You're a thick, bigoted Moron? You vote UKIP whether or not they can win, and you're rightfully ignored. You don't think the Labour leader is up to the Job? You vote for the candidate most likely to beat the Labour guy, whoever you notionally support. In an electorate of forty million or so these choices usually deliver a result that delivers an executive with a clear mandate. To imagine everyone would vote the same way under different systems is absurd.
The result is a system that sets the bar very high to secure representation. UKIP, mostly failed to meet the required standard, and suffered at the hands of tactical voting. Where it looked like they'd win, the people coalesced around the candidate most likely to beat them. That is a valid democratic choice - the electorate expressing its will clearly that while there are 4m people who like the Toxic yahoos. There are probably 8m people who'd move heaven and earth to keep UKIP away from power. Lots of people can like you. But you also have to have lots of people to not HATE you too. And where the candidate wasn't obviously a bigoted git who looked like a shaved chimpanzee in a suit who's just ranting Farage's morning brain-fart, Clacton, UKIP won comfortably. There's a lesson there.
Would the country really be better off with 83 grunting ignoramuses from UKIP in coalition, demanding David Cameron send the navy to Machine-gun migrants in the Mediterranean (which they'd in any case already demanded be sent to... um... Nepal) and the RAF to bomb the Strasbourg parliament? What purpose would a dozen hippies from the Green party, demanding the immediate closure of Nuclear power stations, and the shrinking of the UK economy serve apart from to make the business of Government more difficult.
There is a case for some electoral reform, but it's not strong. Multi-member constituencies (I favour the counties sending 1 to 10 MPs to parliament depending upon population). AV or STV have their adherents, but these systems may serve to exacerbate the swings in a big move, and deliver even more overwhelming majorities to a single party or give overwhelming over-representation to everyone's second choice. I'm not clear this is any better than the system we have now.
The First Past the Post system isn't broken, and certainly no worse than any other. Landslides like 1983 and 1997 are rare. Yet the government changes when the mood of the country changes. The people aren't clamouring for a change to the system, the losing parties are. But the rules are the same for everyone. The losers should just work harder in their target seats and shut up.
Monday, 11 May 2015
I went drinking with a nest of pinkos at the weekend (the collective noun for lefties is "nest", everyone knows this). What struck me is their constant refrains: "Tories should want Scotland to become independent", and "Tories will implode with over the referendum". The Tories ossified in their minds in the same way one's music taste does somewhere between leaving school and getting a mortgage, in our cases some time around the turn of the millennium. Very few people in the media on the left understand the Conservative party or the Conservative mentality.
The Conservative party is an ancient, many-headed beast. It does contain English nationalists, but these are a small minority. The vast majority of Conservatives would take another 20 years of opposition rather than see the Union break up. As it is, for now, Labour has been slain in Scotland. The Tories have as much Westminster representation north of the Border as Labour or Liberal Democrats. This leaves an opening. 15% of Scots voted for the "hated" Tories, and the party came second in a dozen seats. As a major party of Government, I suspect the "hatred" is more media habit, than real. There is a good chance of a comeback in Scotland - remember the Party was once as dominant in Scotland as the SNP is now. No political hegemony lasts forever, especially it seems in Scotland, and the SNPs will be no different. Expect there to be one remaining ranty Scots Nat holding a Glasgow seat in following the 2040 election as some other party sweeps all before it. Securing the long-term future of the Union, however will be David Cameron's main project as Prime Minister.
Which brings us to what commentators are confidently saying will be the centrepiece of this parliament - the EU referendum. Next to the Union, the EU referendum is now a trifle for the PM. Let's be clear. There is absolutely no way 'out' will win. It's major cheerleaders are too toxic. When the leadership of Labour, Tory, SNP, Plaid etc, as well as almost every major businessman, sports people, celebrities, The Sun, The Times, The Mirror, The Guardian and just about anyone else who matters lines up saying 'in' and UKIP with a handful of the Tory awkward squad and the Daily Express are for 'out', the public will notice. The vote will be 2:1 for 'in'. For this not to be the case, UKIP, and the Tory right needs to lead a remarkable, energetic and subtle campaign nationwide, starting now. Yeah. Right.
So the result is a foregone conclusion. The nest of Pinkos assume the awkward squad will then all chuck their toys out of the pram. The fact is, for most of the Tory party, Europe is no longer a burning issue. We'd all go man the barricades should it look like we join the Euro, but we won that argument pretty comprehensively. We are not Euro enthusiasts, and look at Brussels with scepticism, relishing every opportunity to slap interfering eurocrats down. But we're mostly grumpily in favour of staying in the project because ultimately the Tory party is the party of business.
So here is an opportunity for a Conservative prime minister to go to Brussels from a position of strength, and demand concessions. And we will get them. There is no way the EU felt the need to negotiate while it looked like the last Labour leader, Edmund Mili-something (I've already forgotten), was going to be PM. But now they need to consider a Generous offer - Germany cannot afford Brexit and Merkel will ensure enough is given to ensure the UK remains Germany's bulwark against French economic dirigisme.
The point is, everyone's already made up their minds how they're going to react. The few headbangers will headbang about it being a "betrayal", whatever Cameron brings back. They will be few in number. Half a dozen at most. There will be a large contingent who'll take up the opportunity to campaign for 'out' but take great care to do so without being disloyal to the PM. The rest will slide in line behind the Prime Minister, hailing a great transfer of powers back to Westminster by an all-conquering leader. (Whether this is the case, is irrelevant). There will be few doing so enthusiastically, and a great continuum of gritted teeth lining up behind the PM. But Cameron has won an election. And that, for now, means his authority over his party is absolute. That is why he wants to accelerate the negotiation - get the major hurdle out of the way early.
The Tory party has made its peace with its Euro differences. The referendum has been delivered. The Euro "bastards" are not going to do to Cameron what they did to Major, however much the Labour party, nests of my pinko drinking buddies and the Media will be trying to replay greatest hits of the '90s.
Saturday, 9 May 2015
Few expected a Tory majority until the Exit poll. I didn't dare hope until about 2am.
Wednesday, 6 May 2015
I think the bottles of port, beers and cases of wine I've bet with twitter correspondents, friends and colleagues are going to bankrupt me if Labour win, and give me alcoholic liver disease if the Tories do. So, hot on the heels of my correctly predicting the outcome of the Scottish Referendum, AND the EU elections; I, the UK's own Nate Silver using little more than reading, wishful thinking and guesswork am going to tell you what's going to happen over the next 36 hours.
David Cameron will still be Prime minister, probably with help from DUP, and the remaining Liberal Democrats. The alternative, Prime Minister Miliband is too grotesque to contemplate. Tories will probably be quite comfortably the largest party; here's why:
- Miliband is obviously a helpless, flailing git. In the privacy of the polling booth, this will matter, leading to
- The usual Tory out-performance of their polling, and labour underperformance of theirs.
- The polls are currently showing a small Tory lead.
- The polls may well be wrong, on a scale not seen since 1992, because the polling methodology hasn't been tested with the rise of UKIP, the collapse of the Lib-Dems and the rise of the SNP.
- Labour will do a bit better than polling suggests in Scotland, as will Tories (but to little avail in seats)
- Liberal Democrats will retain 25 seats
- UKIP will have 3: Clacton, Thurrock and one other. Neither Mark Reckless in Rochester, nor Farage in South Thannet will be MPs on May 8th.