Monday, 4 April 2016

I dislike the EU intensely. I'm voting to Remain in.

I get it. You hate the EU, and Jean Claude Juncker's a twat. I get it, the desire to kick Guy Verhofstadt in the bollocks. I understand on a deep and visceral level the desire to headbut Martin Shultz and wedgie Neil bloody Kinnock and hang him on a clothes peg by his underpants until they rip. I want pour itching powder into all their underwear drawers. Jaques Delors especially. But for better or worse, in the EU or out, we have to work with these bloody people, and the tin-pot countries they come from which show precious little gratitude for the British blood poured into their soil over the centuries for the privilege they still enjoy to not speak German (or French or Spanish). Instead they must speak English...

I get the desire to send RAF Typhoons on punitive strikes against the wasteful and absurd Strasbourg Parliament building, with or without the MEPs still inside. I understand the desire to have HMS Dragon, the most modern air-defence destroyer on the sea to be deployed against Spanish fishermen. I get the desire to set fire to French sheep (mainly because you'd get in less trouble than you would setting fire to French farmers). I too deplore the wasteful CAP. Above all, I want the entire commission, parliament and bureacuracy of the EU lined up and bogwashed by the smelliest upper-sixth prefect, one after the other while they practice their English irregular verbs. All right-thinking people agree.

I'm still voting to 'Remain'.

The most likely scenario should the UK leave the EU, is that not a lot would change. There will of course be some disruption before people realise this, probably leading to a small recession. But upon UK leaving the EU, slipping into the EEA will feel like a more comfortable shirt. Long-run, we may even be better off and happier. This will likely suit our historic national desire for "the open sea" over the continent. But  UKIPpers will still be grunting about immigrants, and deplore the fact we still have to obey EU rules. But as we will no longer have any formal means to influence them all that much, they'll have to lump it. Thankfully without their MEPs (and EU money) they'll fade away.

We'll be free to trade with the world (as if we aren't already...)? Well here's the Economist suggesting it's nowhere near as easy as Brexiteers pretend to negotiate new trade agreements.  This EEA scenario holds no fear for me. But it's by no means a given, and nor does it achieve much beyond 'not being in the EU'.

If we aren't staying in the EEA, then negotiating a new arrangement with Europe will likewise be nowhere near as simple as Brexiteers will have you believe - and it will be negotiated in an atmosphere of bad blood. There will be a recession, and probably a long and deep one. We will in the short to medium term almost certainly be worse off.

However there is a broad strand of 'Leave' thought that wants the UK to be the catalyst for the collapse of the entire EU project. The problem is with Brexit, a systemic collapse is far from just being a 'KIPper's mastubatory fantasy, it could happen, and there exist outside forces, who've already got influence, that will be urging it on. This systemic collapse WILL cause a massive recession, both here and even worse, in the EU, and lead to all the geostrategic points that I've been raising in all my previous essays on the subject. Vladimir Putin would be delighted. World trade - heretofore liberalising albeit at a glacial pace would go back by 30 years.

You can't have it both ways: glory in the imminent collapse of the EU AND paint the downsides of that scenario as 'Project Fear' when it's absolutely what most brexiteers desire, when the mask slips.

You can EITHER control EU immigration OR keep all the trade benefits of the EEA, but not both. Leaving the EU can either be low-risk OR you can control EU immigration and "get our country back". Not both. 

Even the best case scenario of EEA membership, (which I suspect most Brexiteers only favour to have any chance at all of securing a 'Leave' vote at all) will leave the UK not much better off, with significant risks all on the downside, should any more damaging scenarios play out.

Leaving this bloody stupid organisation our idiot neighbours built simply isn't a good gamble. Stay in, and keep the more excitable Federast knobbers under control as best we can is in the best interests of the UK, and that of our friends and allies on the continent. Basically that means staying in, to work with the Germans to prevent the French screwing everything up. Again.

If leaving was government policy, and I knew therefore which of the options I'd be voting for, and the risks and benefits were clear in advance (and we were opting for EEA...), I'd probably go for it. But it isn't, they're not and so I won't. I'm not taking a risk with my prosperity, just to please idiot 'KIPpers. That's that. 



6 comments:

perdix said...

Stay in and be a constant pressure for reform in everything EU. We will eventually make enough allies to change things, but it won't be easy.

Simon Jester said...

"I dislike huge, artificial breasts immensely. I'm still voting for Miss Katie Price."

Anonymous said...

We won't have to abide by EU rules if we aren't in the EU....

Bloke in Italy said...

Fair enough but you're still wrong.

It's a fucking disaster and getting worse not better, fast.

Everything they touch turns to shit.

In one sense it's irrelevant whether we leave or not because the whole fucking shambolic disaster will collapse at some point whether we stay or leave. However if it does so sooner then there's a sporting chance of salvaging something from the wreckage.

If it lurches on for another 30 years then the damage will take generations to fix.

So carry on vote with your pocketbook. It's your blog and that's your privilege. However, you'll be making a mistake.

Anonymous said...

For forty years we been telling them they are going in the wrong direction. in the beginning we had a hand on the brake, now all we can do is sit in the back seat and whisper "stop", the joy of 'qualified majority voting'.
Each new disaster and they just insisting the need for 'more Europe', heading for the rocks even faster.
This is our last chance to get to the lifeboat, use it.
We don't need to be in the EEA, we don't need trade deals - trade deals are for closed markets, we should trade in the global market.
Just because you don't like Farrage/UKIP is no reason to sink with the EU ship.

Anonymous said...

Save yourselves while you still can.



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