Thursday, 23 June 2016

Referendum Prediction: On Polling Day. And After.


You know my views on this, and it looks like sanity will prevail over the dread forces of nativist populism.

I think a few Tories who threw their lot in with Leave will wake up relieved, as if from a fever, that their frenzy didn't result in too much damage. There hasn't been all that much Blue on Blue action whatever the papers say. I think Gove will not be welcomed back. His hyperbole was too great. But Gove aside, the Tories will find it easier to put the party back together than pundits suggest.

Farage will try to do to England what Nicola Sturgeon did to Scotland. He will tour the country whipping up anti-establishment feeling in all the worst places. Mostly, he will fail, but It remains to be seen whether UKIP can supplant the Labour party in its abandoned heartlands. The habit of voting and activism may have been regained amongst the working class. This is a cure to the ennui they feel, in and of itself. They do matter, and can change things. After all, whatever happens, they just have.

As for Labour, who went AWOL under their laughable leader: well quite a few of the grown-ups will have been working with the saner Tories, and these tribes may find they don't hate each other quite as much as they hate the more extreme elements of their own parties. This is the new divide in politics: Cosmopolitans vs Nativists, Mangerialists vs Idealogues, those asking "what do we do" vs those asking "whom do we blame". This fun new culture war doesn't tie down nicely along party lines. It spreads across groups more used to voting on economic solutions, not matters of identity.

This yawp of dissatisfaction, mainly by people which Labour elite once thought they could rely upon, without having to listen, represented a great wail of anguish at the modern world, which settled upon the EU as a scapegoat, may well sweep the Labour party away.

There are too many working parts, tribal loyalties run too deep. Personalities too difficult to see from afar. UKIP, Tory right and Labour left are not a comfortable coalition. Tory and Labour centrists? Or maybe there will be a new Social Democratic party. Or maybe Labour's centrists may attempt a takeover of the Liberal Democrats....

As for the EU, the panjandrums know deep down, they narrowly dodged an existential crisis, brought about by arrogance, hubris and a tin-ear. They would do well to read this.

But sanity prevails. The broad west can now get on with being the shining light on the hill, the example to other societies for riches, productivity and freedom, to which huddled masses not lucky enough to be born in one of our countries will struggle and risk death to get to. Immigration will remain a fact of life, for as long as the UK is a better, freer, happier place to live, offering more opportunity than elsewhere. All we need is the French to reject Le Pen, and the Americans to reject the Trump. Luckily both look like they will do so comfortably.

Nothing's perfect. Here's my Rallying cry:

WHAT DO WE WANT?
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT!
WHEN DO WE WANT IT?
WHENEVER ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ALLOW.

Not one to get the masses to the barricades, but it's delivered more wealth, happiness and prosperity than any other.



7 comments:

Gareth said...

I don't think that Juncker read your letter to him, to judge by his comments this morning.

John said...

Shame about the ports directive. And the clinical trials directive. And the fishing industry. And, in due course, the City. Not to mention our inability to stop anything else we don't like, through, you know, voting.

Simon Jester said...

So there's this bit in the Firefly episode "Shindig" ...

Anonymous said...

"Cast Iron Dave" Rusted & busted.

Jackart said...

Enjoy your recession folks.

Anonymous said...

Your tears of impotent rage are delicious, jackart.

thecaptain said...

The recession was around the corner anyway, everyone in Europe and the U.K. financial sector knew this even if they refused to talk about it openly. It's just a good day to bury bad news.

The markets have been over valued in Europe for some time considering the amount of debt they hold and the general wage stagnation due to said migration issues. A good forest fire was needed in 2008 after the financial meltdown and this never happened. A proper recession and clearing out will return to a solid growth economy. Europe was fucked the minute it refused to let Greece go bankrupt. But Juncker stamping his feet like a teenager who just got dumped by girlfriend/boyfriend just proves what a collection of cunts the EU really is.

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